The World Steel Association released short-term steel demand forecasts for 2020 and 2021. It is predicted that in 2020, due to the impact of the 2019 new Coronavirus pneumonia epidemic, global steel demand will shrink by 6.4% to 1.654 billion tons. In 2021, global steel demand is expected to return to 1.717 billion tons, an increase of 3.8% from 2020. China's recovery is expected to lead the rest of the world, which will ease the decline in global steel demand this year. It is inferred that most countries' closures will continue to ease during June and July, social restrictions will continue to be implemented, and most steel-producing countries will not be affected by the second wave of pandemics.

Mr. Al Remeithi, Chairman of the World Steel Association Market Research Committee, commented on the results of this forecast:

"This epidemic has catastrophic consequences for public health and has a huge impact on the world economy. Frozen consumption, business closures and supply chain disruptions have severely impacted our downstream users. Therefore, we predict Steel demand will continue to decline significantly, especially in the second quarter. As the restrictions in May begin to ease, we expect the situation to gradually improve, but demand recovery will be a slow process.

Nonetheless, the decline in steel demand in most countries may not be as severe as during the 2008 global financial crisis, because the consumer and service-related industries that suffered the most severe impact on steel demand are relatively small. The demand for steel in many advanced economies is already in a low-growth zone and has not yet fully recovered from the 2008 crisis.

It should be emphasized that we made predictions during a period of high uncertainty. Because economies are restarting without developing vaccines or effective therapies, there is still a big downside risk. If the spread of the virus is controlled and the second and third epidemic peaks do not occur, and the government’s stimulus measures continue to be implemented, we may see a faster recovery. "